alexis

My mother and I used to bet (I was younger then, like 10 or something) and I just would go by the name of the horse when I did, but oddly during a Derby I won like 20 bucks from her doing this.

I just read an article that states that the horses statistics are not always the best way to decide a bet, so what is?

PonyClub

I don't know but I used to do the same as you! It worked more often than not-certainly, overall I came away on top over the years.

It was either that or putting all the names in a hat and drawing one out at random.... It often seemed that the stats as you said, didn't hold true.

Clover

If there was a sure way to pick the winner, then there wouldn't be much of a betting industry would there?

The beting odds differ between bookmakers depending on how likely they think the horse is to win. Odds on mean that they're pretty certain it will win.

There are many more variables contained within the statistics that just odds and how often a horse has won a race. Different horses prefer different wetness in the soil, so if it rains then different horses have the advantage. Where in the lineup they start and what horse they're next to also has an effect (eg stallions next to mares). Even the equipment the horse is wearing will influence how it races.

alexis

I was going more for the variables, I have never really understood them. And now if I were to bet, I will still do the same, and go by the name and what I can see of the horse.

Buckskin

The variable I understand best is the track.

"Fast tracks are very dry, "Heavy" tracks are much wetter. Some horses prefer fast tracks, some prefer wet tracks.

Internationally there is no standard measurement of moisture in the soil to determine what grade track a course is on any given day.

Consequently, Australian horses suit a faster type track internationally, because we're so much dryer.

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